![]() The stronger the sentiment in either direction, the stronger the predictive signal."įor example, he said, the movies Baywatch and Tomb Raider received positive pre-release reviews but generated dismal opening box office results. "Conversely, their negative reviews hinted towards the film being a success. "Interestingly, when these critics penned positive pre-release reviews, they signaled that the movie would be a flop," said Loupos. As it turned out, the so-called harbingers of failure did exist. Researchers wanted to see if they could predict a movie's success based on these reviews. The study analyzed a plethora of pre-release movie reviews penned by film critics on Rotten Tomatoes. "In our analysis, we demonstrate that not all positive or negative reviews necessarily signal a movie's success or failure, respectively." "We contend that it's essential to differentiate among movie critics, arguing that the influence of reviews on box office performance isn't uniform across all critics," said the study's lead author, Pantelis Loupos, assistant professor of marketing and business analysis for the Graduate School of Management. The findings have implications that might change how one perceives popular pre-release reviews, authors said. The study, "What reviews foretell about opening weekend box office revenue: the harbinger of failure effect in the movie industry," was published in Marketing Letters in April. Researchers analyzed pre-release commentary and opening weekend box office revenue, turning the impact of movie reviews on its head and revealing an unexpected harbinger of failure phenomenon in the movie industry. However, researchers at the University of California, Davis, suggest that is not the case. ![]()
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